At the fish wholesale market in downtown Nairobi, trucks full of fresh catch from Lake Victoria are immediately surrounded by eager vendors and residents. Nile perch and tilapia are often sold out within minutes. This is not a special holiday scene but a daily reflection of Kenya’s ongoing “fish shortage.”With a population of over 50 million, Kenya needs about 500,000 tons of fish annually to meet basic nutritional needs[1]. However, domestic production, including capture and aquaculture, provides only 150,000 to 180,000 tons[2]. The gap of over 300,000 tons is not only a livelihood issue but also a huge investment opportunity. At the heart of this opportunity is Lake Victoria, known as the “Blue Jewel of Africa.”
01
Lake Victoria
Kenya’s Blue Economic Lifeline and Its Challenges
Lake Victoria is the largest freshwater lake in Africa and the second largest in the world. It is shared by Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), annual fish catch from Lake Victoria is around 900,000 tons[3]. Around this lake, a “blue economy” ecosystem involving fisheries, tourism, transport, and energy is taking shape. In 2023, the East African Blue Economy Development Strategy was launched, identifying Lake Victoria as a regional growth engine for sustainable development.Although Kenya holds only about 6% of the lake area, it contributes 76% of the country’s freshwater fish production—around 94,000 tons[4].
02
The “Fish Shortage” Hides
a Huge Business Opportunity
Why does Kenya face such a serious fish shortage?
strong demand
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recommends an annual per capita fish consumption of 8 kg. Based on this, Kenya would need to supply 500,000 to 600,000 tons of fish each year. But the current domestic production is only 150,000 to 180,000 tons. This means demand is more than three times the current supply.
a single-source supply structure
About 85% of Kenya’s fish supply comes from inland lakes, most from natural catch in Lake Victoria[5]. In contrast, marine fisheries produce only about 25,000 tons per year[6], with limited impact on the inland market. Even worse, Lake Victoria is under severe pressure—overfishing is reducing fish stocks, invasive species like water hyacinths cause significant economic losses, and pollution from sewage and industrial waste adds to the ecological stress.
huge growth potential
Most Important
Kenya’s per capita fish consumption is only 4.3 kg[7], far below the global average of 20 kg and the FAO's recommended level. As the economy grows and people become more aware of the nutritional value of fish, demand is expected to rise significantly.
03
Where Are the Opportunities
for Chinese Investors?
Facing such a large market gap, Chinese investors have advantages in the following areas:
Fish fry and aquaculture technology
China has strong experience in fish fry cultivation and tilapia farming. Some Chinese companies are already promoting eco-aquaculture and rice-fish farming in Kenya with good results. Investing in fish farms can bring profits and help upgrade the whole industry.
Fisheries equipment manufacturing
China has mature technology and cost advantages in building fishing boats, harvesting gear, and aquaculture tools. Kenyan fishermen mostly use traditional and simple tools, and there is a large demand for modern equipment. Chinese companies can export equipment, transfer technology, or set up factories locally to meet full industry chain needs. In recent years, Kenya has made the blue economy a key focus, promoting boat upgrades, processing infrastructure, and fishing quota systems to improve investment certainty. For companies importing equipment, Kenya offers incentives in special economic zones such as 10 years of 10% corporate tax, import duty exemption, 100% capital deductions, and free currency exchange[8]. Chinese firms can also apply for export credit or China-Africa financial tools to lower financing costs and enter the local market.
Fish processing and cold chain logistics
Kenya’s fish industry suffers from weak cold chain systems. Chinese investors can bring in cold storage equipment, build processing plants, or offer logistics services to improve fish storage and transportation efficiency, increasing market supply.
Export and trade cooperation[9]
Though Kenya faces domestic fish shortages, its exports to China are growing. Since 2022, China and Kenya have signed agreements on fisheries and aquatic product trade, allowing products like squid, octopus, cuttlefish, Nile perch, and dried small fish (e.g., dagaa/anchovy) to enter the Chinese market. In 2023, Kenya’s wild anchovy made its debut at the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo. In the same year, Kenya’s fish exports to China reached 2.3 billion Kenyan Shillings[10].
At the same time, Chinese firms can partner with local cooperatives or processors to bring quality fish and local species to the Chinese market. With the help of China’s “green channel” and quarantine standards under China-Africa agreements, Chinese importers can enjoy trade convenience and regulatory support. Together with export credit or the Silk Road Fund, they can invest in cold chain infrastructure, brand building, and market networks.
04
Capturing the Growth of the Blue Economy
The blue economy around Lake Victoria is rising. This largest freshwater lake in Africa is becoming a new engine of growth for East Africa. For visionary Chinese investors, Lake Victoria offers a rare mix of market demand, resource advantages, and strong complementarity with Chinese capabilities. Those who can combine Chinese capital and technology with local resources, and follow sustainable development principles, will gain solid returns in this “blue land” and contribute to solving Kenya’s fish shortage, achieving true mutual benefit.
References
[1]https://kefs.go.ke/sites/default/files/202507/KeFS%20FFINAL%20STRATEGIC%20PLAN%202023%20-%202027.pdf
[2]2024 KeFS Bulletin Draft Report_Final 22072025.pdf
[3]https://www.fao.org/fishery/static/tenure-user-rights/root/volume3/C35.pdf
[6]https://mahb.stanford.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2021/08/ThestatusofKenyaFisheriesKMFRI2008.pdf